All Posts By

Trevor Forbes

When America sneezes, the World catches a cold

By | Blog
The stock market has just completed the first half of 2019 with the strongest opening six month increase of any year since 1997. This statistic alone has prompted many investors to question the durability of the current economic and market cycle. In this post, we look at the current state of the global economy and the characteristics of market cycles.

“When America sneezes, the World catches a cold”

This widely used saying dates back to Austrian politician Klemens von Metternich (1773 – 1859) who, at the time of Napoleon, penned the phrase “When Paris sneezes, Europe catches a cold.” Economists and politicians have amended Metternich’s words to reflect America’s dominant role in global economics since the start of the twentieth century. Today, this phrase may be particularly apposite.

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Happy Birthday to the Unloved Bull Market

By | Blog
Yes, ten years have passed since March 12 2009 when stocks started to rise after the worst stock market collapse since the Great Depression. Since then, the S&P 500 Index has risen 273%.   A decade seems a long time for a bull market without a ‘proper’ correction. The length and extent of the rise in stocks in the USA has led some to call this The Great Bull Market while others have been calling an end to the rise virtually since it started. This has truly been one of the most unloved bull markets on record.In this article we try to add a perspective, looking back on the factors supporting the seeming inexorable rise and we look forward to how some of these factors may evolve. Read More